As universities announce their proposed fees for 2012 under the new tuition fees rules, it is becoming clear that government calculations were not quite right. With most universities choosing the highest fees of £9,000 – which the government predicted would only be in “exceptional circumstances” – the average fees now stand at nearly £8,700, compared to the £7,500 predicted by the government. This equals bad news in terms of finance, with the government having to provide more money for loans than they had calculated for, resulting in an estimated shortfall of £450m by 2014. This could lead to a reduction in the number of student places, or further cuts to teaching grants.

The high fees are also feared to push UK and EU students to choose to study elsewhere in the world or on distance learning courses, resulting in lower students numbers. Universities are therefore looking for other ways of funding, and appear to have high hopes for the income from non-EU international students – which is often used to subsidise home students, with high international fees with no cap. There are also no government limits on the number of non-EU student places at universities, unlike for UK and EU students, which are limited to minimise the cost to the taxpayer (their fees are subsidies by taxes). In 2010, the income from non-EU student fees in UK higher education stood at 9.6% of the total income (£2.1 billion).

However, with the recent changes to student visas feared to put off international students and increased competition from other nations – not to mention between UK universities -some have said these hopes are unrealistic. The numbers being predicted include plans to raise non-EU international student numbers by up to 100% over the next four years in some cases. According to Times Higher Education (THE), the University of Exeter if planning a 73% increase in non-EU undergraduates between now and 2014, with Durham University planning a 79% rise.

THE reports that Les Ebdon, chair of  Million+ -  a university think tank with a membership of mainly newer universities, many of which used to be polytechnics – said: “Every (institution’s) strategic plan includes losses of money on home students and a massive increase in international students. (Hefce) says it is unbelievable. It is unlikely the numbers would increase by the amount people are predicting. However, the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) declined to give an official comment until they have reviewed the universities’ long-term financial plans, which were due last week.

The plans by universities will be good news for non-EU students, and will likely result in more offers for them in UK universities especially as, although they have been tightened, the new student visa rules are not as restrictive as first feared. However, it may not be such good news for UK and EU students, though a spokesman for the Durham University said: “Increasing the number of international students is not at the expense of UK/EU enrolments. Regrettably the number of UK/EU students we can accept is capped by government”. He also explained: “We receive far more highly qualified UK/EU applicants than Government allows us to admit and we would like a change in Government policy on this.”

To find out more about studying in the UK, see i-studentadvisor’s UK guide.

This years’ conference, which runs for four days, is subtitled ‘The New Dynamics of Higher Education and Research for Societal Change and Development’.  On the agenda for discussion are the growth in student numbers, the new dynamics and policy implications and the social responsibility of higher education. The aim of the conference is an internationally agreed set of actions ‘to ensure that higher education and research play a strategic role in knowledge creation and sharing for a more sustainable, inclusive and development-oriented future’ says the UNESCO website.

Inside Higher Ed published an article today in which Nicholas Burnett, Assistant Director General for education at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization discusses the agenda in more detail.

“The first question is what are these new dynamics? I think there are many, but there are four in particular that we really think are changing the face of higher education,” said Burnett.

“In no particular order — and they’re all linked — one is just the accelerating demand for higher education. In the last seven years, we’ve just had extraordinary expansion — with an increase of about 51 million postsecondary students from 2001-8.”

See the full article on Inside Higher Ed to read all Nicholas Burnett’s points.

University World News, the official media partner of the conference and will be providing updates from the conference on their website throughout the conference.